S Naren, CIO – ICICI Prudential AMC, shares his outlook on the equity markets for 2016, the problems the markets are facing currently and explains why investing in the current bear phase will be rewarding for investors.
Notes: Just for the record, S Naren has been one of the few fund managers who has been very successful in getting broad market direction right. In Jan 2015 he called for investors to move into bonds and wait for markets to stabilize and earnings growth to come through. In Aug 2013, when Nifty was at 5150, he was of clear view that investors should buy Nifty or broad based mutual funds to benefit from upswing as valuations were crushed. That was also a very valuable assessment.
While this video is 5 years old, the content is still very relevant, and some of the implications and projections by George Soros have actually come true in last 5 years. The key point to note is that George Soros does not accept/agree with the Efficient Market Theory. While we can’t predict the future, it is possible to create scenarios and test them against the events as they unfold.
Open Society Foundations chairman and founder George Soros shares his latest thinking on economics and politics in a five-part lecture series recorded at Central European University, October 26-30, 2009. The lectures are the culmination of a lifetime of practical and philosophical reflection. Continue reading →
Japan was the top performing market of 2013, and China is the top performing market of 2014. The plunge in crude oil prices is likely to wreak economic havoc on vulnerable oil exporters such as Russia and Venezuela (both countries face recession in 2015), oil prices have hit 5 year lows this week, falling nearly 50 percent since mid-June 2014 as weak global demand for crude oil, combined with strong supply growth from new production wells going live in 2014. South and Southeast Asian markets also featured in the top-five performing markets after registering double-digit gains. Philippines and Indonesia equities followed close behind, both rising over 22 percent. Chinese market (Shanghai Composite) has bounced back after last couple of years of weak performance, and gained 52% in 2014, on the back of policy action by Chinese govt to boost the local economy, to become the best performing Asian market, and top performer worldwide for 2014 while beating Indian markets which gained 31% in 2014. Read More…
This post is probably the most valuable post on this website, for the amount of history, learning, wealth and losses it captures, and lessons that are as relevant today, as they were in the Wall Street Crash, October 1929. Please read and share. Thanks.
Claud Cockburn, writing for the “Times of London” from New York, described the irrational exuberance that gripped the nation just prior to the Wall Street Crash, October 1929 and the following Great Depression of the 1930s, the bread lines, the apple sellers, etc. As Europe wallowed in post-war malaise, America seemed to have discovered a new economy, the secret of uninterrupted growth and prosperity, the fount of transforming technology:
“The atmosphere of the great boom was savagely exciting, but there were times when a person with my European background felt alarmingly lonely. He would have liked to believe, as these people believed, in the eternal upswing of the big bull market or else to meet just one person with whom he might discuss some general doubts without being regarded as an imbecile or a person of deliberately evil intent – some kind of anarchist, perhaps.” Continue reading →