14% of the high yield bond market is from oil/energy producers, and that part is undergoing stress currently with the large correction in crude oil prices. Lower grade bond issuers with lower ratings are not going to be able to issue fresh bonds unless oil prices rebound. There are many highly leveraged oil/energy producers and service providers to the shale oil industry, and they are hit the hardest.
Crude Oil prices are down 25% since their recent higher levels, and are currently at nearly 4 year low. Experienced energy analysts feel crude oil prices may remain low in the near term due to increasing US shale oil supply, but crude oil prices are likely to move up back to $100 per barrel.
One day after Saudi Arabia lowered prices in an attempt to hold market share in the USA, to compete with the cheaper shale oil in the United States market, the White House spokesman Josh Earnest said that the USA is monitoring the global oil demand-supply situation but has no comment on whether it might look at replenishing the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs analysts believe the crude oil surplus supply situation will remain till Q2, 2015. However, industry veterans believe crude will bounce back by Jan 2015, its just a matter of few weeks for the commodity to stabilize, and then the big short squeeze will play out, and we may see crude oil back at $100 per barrel by Jan-Feb 2015. Continue reading
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