Category Archives: Economy

Global Market Updates – Monday, 11 Nov 2019

The US-China trade war returned to centre stage last week as investors swayed between optimism and caution as mixed, but broadly positive reports turned the markets bullish. Reports earlier in the week suggested that China was demanding more concessions in rolling back existing tariffs as a condition for the first phase deal. There was more uncertainty as the US suggested midweek that a deal might be delayed until December but on Thursday markets turned positive again as China stated that the US had agreed to roll back existing tariffs as part of the first phase deal. As a result Crude Oil and stocks were boosted, while Gold decreased in value.

The General Election campaign officially began in the UK with investors keeping a close eye on opinion polls. The governing Conservatives have a firm 12% lead over the Labour party, although some opinion polls show that this lead is narrowing The election will take place on December 12th and investors will be hoping for a clear result which doesn’t prolong the uncertainty on Brexit.

The Middle East was another source of focus last week with both Iran and Iraq in the headlines and affecting Crude and Gold prices. While Iran continues its nuclear program in Iraq large numbers of protests continued with some blocking the key Nassiriya oil refinery and disrupting oil supplies.

Crude Prices were again pressured by poor inventories data this week, but finished higher over trade optimism.

Stock prices recorded all time highs again this week as trade sentiment supported the markets and better than expected US economic data, continued to calm fears of a US economic slowdown.

The prices of Natural Gas, Crude Oi, Palladium, Silver Platinum, and Gold saw the greatest volatility last week.

Natural Gas was the most volatile last week at 14.25%, and edged lower over the week by 0.64%, as the weather forecasts showed slightly milder weather was expected dampening prices somewhat.

Crude oil also experienced very high oscillations, showing volatility of 13.34%. The commodity’s price slipped slightly by 0.21% and prices were most volatile on Wednesday as fears over global demand continued amid nervousness over US – China first phase trade talks progress.

Palladium saw great volatility, recording 10.06% volatility but falling by 3.04% over the week with a strengthening dollar putting pressure on precious metals last week.

Silver was also highly volatile last week recording volatility of 12.68% and fell lower by 6.31%. Silver saw greatest volatility on Tuesday.

Platinum prices oscillated this week recording 11.46% volatility and declined by 3.04% over the week. The precious metal experienced most volatility on Thursday.

Gold prices continued oscillating by 6.68% last week and traded downwards by 3.51% over the week with the precious metal seeing most volatility on Thursday, in a volatile week that saw trade optimism turn slightly sour at the very end of the week.

Market Views from S Naren of ICICI Prudential

S Naren, CIO – ICICI Prudential AMC, shares his outlook on the equity markets for 2016, the problems the markets are facing currently and explains why investing in the current bear phase will be rewarding for investors.

Notes: Just for the record, S Naren has been one of the few fund managers who has been very successful in getting broad market direction right. In Jan 2015 he called for investors to move into bonds and wait for markets to stabilize and earnings growth to come through. In Aug 2013, when Nifty was at 5150, he was of clear view that investors should buy Nifty or broad based mutual funds to benefit from upswing as valuations were crushed. That was also a very valuable assessment.

George Soros on Financial Markets – Q&A

While this video is 5 years old, the content is still very relevant, and some of the implications and projections by George Soros have actually come true in last 5 years. The key point to note is that George Soros does not accept/agree with the Efficient Market Theory. While we can’t predict the future, it is possible to create scenarios and test them against the events as they unfold.

Open Society Foundations chairman and founder George Soros shares his latest thinking on economics and politics in a five-part lecture series recorded at Central European University, October 26-30, 2009. The lectures are the culmination of a lifetime of practical and philosophical reflection. Continue reading

China – Top Performing Market of 2014

Japan was the top performing market of 2013, and China is the top performing market of 2014. The plunge in crude oil prices is likely to wreak economic havoc on vulnerable oil exporters such as Russia and Venezuela (both countries face recession in 2015), oil prices have hit 5 year lows this week, falling nearly 50 percent since mid-June 2014 as weak global demand for crude oil, combined with strong supply growth from new production wells going live in 2014. South and Southeast Asian markets also featured in the top-five performing markets after registering double-digit gains. Philippines and Indonesia equities followed close behind, both rising over 22 percent. Chinese market (Shanghai Composite) has bounced back after last couple of years of weak performance, and gained 52% in 2014, on the back of policy action by Chinese govt to boost the local economy, to become the best performing Asian market, and top performer worldwide for 2014 while beating Indian markets which gained 31% in 2014. Read More…

Recession news from Japan and EU

Recession news from Japan and weak economic data from Europe have the been the main theme this week. Here are a few interesting articles and videos…

  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-futures-fall-as-global-data-disappoints-consumer-prices-ahead-2014-11-20
  • http://www.marketwatch.com/story/profits-now-apocalypse-later-as-we-head-toward-the-chasing-season-2014-11-20
  • http://wolfstreet.com/2014/11/17/how-warren-buffett-is-dumping-stocks-out-the-backdoor/
  • http://finance.yahoo.com/news/short-seller-kass-on-market-highs–i-am-waiting-to-pull-the-trigger-135407900.html