Category Archives: Finance

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Notes for Commercial Real Estate Investments

Commercial real estate is defined as property that is used for the purpose of commerce. For example, an office building, a warehouse, retail store, shopping center or an apartment building with five or more units.

Today in 2010, due to the global recession since 2008, there is a much higher supply of commercial real estate than its demand, and hence the prices are attractive and can be negotiated hard by interested buyers.

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We expect that commercial real estate prices may correct by 10-20% in 2011 depending on the country and city. In general one can’t go wrong with buying commercial real estate (office space, rather than shopping malls) in big cities if the time frame is 5-10 years.

The risk-reward is more in commercial property than in residential property. Commercial real estate returns can give attractive over 5-10 year period; much better than you would get from residential real estate of the same proportion.

Location is very important in commercial real estate. Our experience has been that “it is better in general” to have a small space at a busy city-center/downtown place, than to a big space at a suburb.

London and New York are two cities that will deliver good returns despite recession if you can invest for 5-10 years. Irrespective of where you are in the world, see if you can invest in commercial property in high growth cities like Mumbai, New Delhi, Hong Kong, Shanghai, etc. These cities can deliver 5x returns in 10 years. Continue reading →

5 Questions, Capital Markets, Finance, People

How to Create Economic Growth in America- 10Aug2010

1 Comment

Michael Pento, senior economist at Euro Pacific Capital, and Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist with Miller Tabak, debate the issues in this clip.

I strongly disagree with Michael Pento, who says a depression should be encouraged in America. His view that the govt. should be as impotent as possible, is one of the most funny statements in the recent months. The need is to increase the money supply, not decrease it. The asset prices (home prices) will automatically fall down gradually in the coming years, based on demand-supply, but it will avoid a crash. Today is not the time to trim the role of the Govt.

If anything can prevent America from depression with deflation, it is the US Govt taking the lead with offering new economic stimulus packages – for infrastructure, for education, for vocational training, etc. Fiscal policy levers/incentives must be used to spur private sector growth, where in the govt. either becomes a buyer or actively sources buyers through export opportunities.

The need is for the govt. to take charge and play a major role. US businesses alone can’t do much. In addition, taxes on the rich must be renewed, not removed. Unless job growth happens, no real economic recovery is possible.
-Shankar

Artificial Intelligence, Capital Markets, Finance, MyOrbit Blogs, Risk Management, Software

Thoughts On 1000 Point Fall in Dow Jones

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Create a massive fall in the market large enough to trigger stop-losses typically set up at 5% drop, and then buy blue chip stocks at 30% less price before they recover, sell Put Options at 1000% gain, blame it all on computers and trading algorithms. Some person or some company somewhere has walked away with billions in profits after this event. It looks very well planned. This event was most probably an example of higest form of market manipulation, a bold master stroke, though illegal and unethical.

To find answers, we need to check the money-trail. Continue reading →

5 Questions, Finance, Real Estate

5 Questions for Mortgage Broker

Buying a house is one the biggest investment you will ever make. Period. Hence by spending the time and effort to find the best mortgage rate is essential in keeping your costs down, but more importantly help you meet your monthly mortgage repayments, and stay within your budget. This is where a knowledgeable mortgage broker can really help you find the best mortgage that works best for you. But before you sign anything, below are 5 simple questions you need to ask any mortgage broker.

1. What is the best interest rate I can get?

A broker earns his living or commission from financial institutions he or she can successfully sign you up with. Hence, you want to ask what is the best rate (and the best package) for your circumstance. Of course, the lower the interest rate, the better off you will be. However, before you decide, make sure the mortgage does suit you day to day living. As well, you want to make sure he is in tune with the mortgage market and acting on the best interest on your behalf. A good broker will keep you updated on rates as they change. Continue reading →

Capital Markets, Finance, People

Expect A U-shaped Economic Recovery – Economist C Rangarajan

In an exclusive interview to NDTV, C Rangarajan, former Governor of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and currently the chairman of India’s Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, says it is going to be a U-shaped economic recovery where we will see periods of economic stagnation. He further said in 2010 there could be some stimulus withdrawal.

In the short term, the conflict between inflation and growth always exists. As of now, there is no case for raising interest rates, at least till inflation is below 5%. The food price pressure will remain for the next 2-3 months.

Rangarajan sees price pressures due to inflation from growth, and oil prices will play a key role. 9% GDP growth for India is possible after the world economy has come out of recession in FY 2011-2012 by when the global trade will pick up.